Tehran - BORNA - Mearsheimer made the remarks in an interview with former Fox News host Judge Andrew Napolitano, recorded in Moscow for the latest episode of Judging Freedom, where they discussed the Gaza ceasefire, the Ukraine conflict, and U.S. foreign policy.

When asked whether Israel would adhere to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza ceasefire, Mearsheimer said: “No, the evidence suggests it won’t. Israel has a long history of violating ceasefires. The most recent one, on January 19—before Trump entered the White House—lasted only two months and was broken by Israel. Given Israel’s failure to achieve its goals in Gaza, another violation is likely.”

He added that the prevailing view in Israel favors expanding its territory by annexing Gaza and expelling Palestinians — a stance aligned with statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — warning that such plans undermine any prospect for a lasting ceasefire.

Regarding Trump’s comments on disarming Hamas, Mearsheimer said that Trump’s reference to “we” meant U.S.-Israeli cooperation, not American troop involvement: “Hamas has made it clear that it will not disarm until a Palestinian entity governs Gaza. The 20-point Trump plan makes that impossible. Experience over the past two years shows that disarming Hamas is unrealistic.”

He noted that Israel’s only tangible achievement in Gaza so far was securing hostage releases, adding that its broader goals — defeating Hamas or removing Palestinians — remain unfulfilled. “The possible deployment of Arab forces in Gaza would make the expulsion of Palestinians even harder,” he said.

Turning to U.S. military activities near Venezuela, Mearsheimer argued that Washington’s motives are unjustified: “There’s no reason for U.S. intervention. Claims linking President Maduro to drug trafficking are baseless. Colombia and Ecuador, not Venezuela, are the main sources of drug flows to the U.S. These allegations are simply a pretext for intervention.”

Trump–Putin Call and Ukraine Ceasefire

Discussing the recent 90-minute phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mearsheimer said: “Trump likely urged Putin to agree to a ceasefire similar to the one in Gaza, but it’s unlikely Putin would accept that, given Russia’s military advantage.”

Napolitano questioned Trump’s claim that Russia had suffered 1.5 million casualties, as well as reports of fuel shortages or economic collapse, saying: “Where is he getting those numbers? They sound more like Ukrainian losses. I’ve been in Moscow this week—gasoline is cheaper than in Manhattan or New Jersey, and there are no lines at the pumps.”

Mearsheimer added: “Tomahawk missiles won’t solve Ukraine’s battlefield problems. The country faces a severe shortage of troops and firepower. Cruise missiles or drones cannot change that reality. Putin is close to achieving his objectives — capturing Russian-speaking regions and preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership — and has no reason to agree to a ceasefire.”

U.S. Military–Industrial Complex

The University of Chicago professor concluded by criticizing the U.S. military–industrial complex and its profit motives: “The military–industrial complex benefits from the Ukraine war, but even without it, massive defense budgets are guaranteed for supporting Israel and containing China in East Asia. The Pentagon’s appetite is insatiable, and whether Democrats or Republicans are in power, that will not change.”

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