CNN: Trump Fails to Grasp Serious Consequences of Military Action in Venezuela
Tehran - BORNA - The American media outlet analyzed the significant political, military, and strategic risks that would arise if US President Donald Trump attempted to depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Citing Trump's claim that "Maduro is spending his last days," CNN's report included warnings from experts that any US military action could lead to long-term instability, the collapse of the governing structure, and ensnare the US in a costly conflict in Latin America.
CNN reported that Trump has raised the possibility of ground attacks inside Venezuela and had previously authorized covert operations in the country. The report states that Trump received a briefing earlier this week on updated military action options, indicating the White House is seriously considering this scenario. However, experts interviewed by CNN stressed that the US currently lacks the necessary military infrastructure for a large-scale operation aimed at regime change in Venezuela. Despite this, the Pentagon has deployed over 10 warships and 15,000 troops as part of Operation Southern Spear, an action that has increased pressure on Maduro.
US administration officials justify this military escalation by alleging Maduro's ties to criminal organizations, including the "Tren de Aragua" gang, and his role in drug trafficking. However, experts warned that even if Maduro is forced out of Venezuela, deposed, or killed in a US attack, the consequences could be far more complex than the Trump administration imagines.
Venezuela's Military Remains Cohesive
John Bolton, Trump's former National Security Advisor during his first term, says the Venezuelan military remains cohesive and disciplined and will not collapse if challenged or if Maduro is removed. Instead, it would seize control and suppress protests. Other experts believe that figures loyal to the political ideology derived from Hugo Chávez might seize power and govern even more strictly than Maduro.
The report continues that Maduro has created a kind of "balance" in the government structure despite internal divisions between civilian and military elements in his inner circle. One Western diplomat, speaking anonymously, says Maduro remains the sole guarantor of stability in Venezuela, and his removal could push the country toward civil war.
CNN then examines the role of Venezuela's fragmented opposition. The Trump administration in its first term supported Juan Guaidó, but he never managed to take power. Now, another opposition group led by Edmundo González claims to have a "100-hour plan" for the transfer of power. However, experts stress that this group would be incapable of governing without extensive and long-term US military and political support.
In addition to the Maduro government, the opposition faces threats from groups known as the "Colectivos," the Venezuelan military, the Colombian rebel group "ELN," and other networks, and US support would be limited.
Trump's Base Did Not Elect Him to Fight Foreign Wars
The report warns that a long-term US commitment in Venezuela could pose a political risk for Trump. One Republican congressional staffer says Trump's voting base did not elect him to engage in foreign wars, and such conflicts could erode his support. Conversely, Elliot Abrams warns that if Trump retreats now, the action would be seen as a "lost opportunity," and US claims of superiority in the Western Hemisphere would be questioned.
CNN concludes by pointing to international risks, including the prominent role of Russia, China, and Cuba in the current Venezuelan government, each of which could take indirect actions against US efforts. Experts also suggest that Maduro might target US assets in the Caribbean Sea if he feels endangered.
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