Venezuela: What Comes Next?
Jalal Khosh-Chehre, the editorial chief of Borna News Agency wrote: Well! What will happen next? Will Venezuela, after moving past the initial shock caused by the fall of Nicolás Maduro, experience peace, stability, economic growth, and an agreement on a new model of state-building? Will what occurred in this country on Saturday (January 3, 2026) put an end to 25 years of the military order handcrafted by "Chávez-Maduro"? Will we truly witness a political-economic metamorphosis in one of the largest holders of oil and mineral resources in the Western Hemisphere, marked by a foreign policy shift from East to West? Does the departure of the leadership from power mean a change of the political regime in Venezuela, even as the governing political structure remains nearly untouched? In this case, what interpretation can be given to the recent shifts in the political system: Fall? Collapse? Behavioral change? Or Transformation?
Regardless of whatever scenario Washington may have envisioned for the fate of Nicolás Maduro and his captive wife, the mode of operation and the level of vision for Venezuela’s future—within the framework of Donald Trump’s "Realpolitik"—reveals a clear concept: Trump has neither been seeking the establishment of a demanding democracy in this country nor, contrary to his past claims, has he had the fall, collapse, or behavioral change of the political system on his agenda.
Everything Trump and the White House have manifested following the capture of Maduro carries one distinct meaning: "Transformation" of the Venezuelan political system from a revolutionary and avant-garde state into a submissive state aligned with the hegemonic power of the United States in the Western Hemisphere. This "transformation" does not serve the establishment of democracy or answer the demands of the opponents of the Maduro system; rather, it is a "transformation" of the country's vast wealth toward what the Trump administration has defined in the U.S. National Security Strategy for the years ahead.
The equation is clear; Trump says: henceforth, American oil companies will be the determiners of Venezuela's wealth. Despite the swearing-in of Delcy Rodríguez (Maduro’s Vice President) as President, it is Washington that dictates the policies and programs of the Venezuelan government until further notice. The political-military and security structure left behind by the Maduro regime remains in place with minor changes; the pro-democracy opposition led by María Corina Machado will remain in the corner of the ring to see what future opportunities arise.
Holding free elections remains a promise for an uncertain future. Any opposition or conflict between the policies of the President—or Venezuela’s bureaucratic and military-security layers—and the will of Washington will be met with a repetition of military action by the U.S. Army. Is this agenda anything other than Washington's desire to return to the era of Classical Imperialism in the Western Hemisphere?
Washington, with Trump's usual simplistic optimism, may consider its will already realized in Venezuela or hold firm hope in this regard. However, realities and unexpected events always act as a variable in the process of developments. The primary variable is the perception of the Venezuelan people who, regardless of their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the fall of Maduro, do not want to be forced into an erosive war for independence once again, more than a century after their War of Independence (1811-1823) against Spain.
The colonial-imperialist behavior of Washington will instill nothing but a sense of being under a protectorate for the people of Venezuela. Trump promises economic growth to Venezuelans but makes the slightest mention of the country's "Development." Development only finds meaning through independence and democracy.
Washington’s military action against Maduro has a pretext different from even the desires of Venezuela’s pro-democracy opposition. He intentionally declared the "war on drugs" as the excuse for the military aggression against this country, whereas Maduro’s opponents have been, and are, demanding the holding of free elections and the establishment of democracy in this wealthy yet broken nation.
The frustration of Venezuelans with what Washington seeks could reawaken the sleeping giant of independence-seeking not only in this country but across Latin America. In that case, will a new page of endless instability be opened in another part of the world? Just as is currently flowing in the Middle East. The mere Transformation of the Venezuelan political regime from an avant-garde system with an Eastern orientation to a system with a Western orientation—solely serving the direct interests of Washington—is not the evolution that Venezuelans were seeking. It is for this reason that one must ask: Well! What will happen next?
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