Exclusive: Iraq's entry into Iran-US confrontation opens new front in region, expert says
Tehran - BORNA - In an exclusive interview with Borna News Agency, Hossein Ajorlou discussed recent US and Saudi attacks on Hashd al-Shaabi positions, noting that following the third imposed war and the subsequent ceasefire, the Iran-US confrontation entered a "grey zone" phase.
He said that when a war enters the grey zone, whether geographically or in terms of scope, the likelihood of expansion increases. "This expansion can stretch from the Caspian Sea to Iraq and Lebanon, and even further to the Arabian Sea. This is a defining feature of the current grey zone conflict."
Ajorlou added that another feature of grey zone warfare is its horizontal and vertical expansion, meaning the range of targets extends from military to civilian sites, and the depth of conflict deepens.
He noted that Iraq appears to be emerging as a new front, adding new dimensions to the Iran-US rivalry. Saudi Arabia's entry into the equation, whether due to reputational concerns or vulnerabilities it has suffered in recent months, is also significant. "Since the Yemen file has largely become repetitive and has not brought Saudi Arabia significant political gains, entering Iraq can be assessed as part of advancing this project."
Ajorlou suggested that the push for disarmament of Hashd al-Shaabi forces, within the framework of Iraqi government agreements and with US support, could be a next step. He stressed that Iraq holds special strategic importance for Iran, citing logistics, the presence of resistance groups, Shiite holy sites, and other considerations. "With 60 percent of Iraq's population living in border areas with Iran, any escalation on Iran's western borders could pose new security risks."
He noted that the resistance front has shown in recent months it is working to maintain balance, and that the new front will likely become another arena of confrontation.
Ajorlou concluded that while operations may intensify and the battlefield expand, both sides currently avoid all-out war due to the uncertainty it would bring. "The current trend points toward an attritional conflict, with occasional increases in operational intensity and periodic ceasefires."
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