Iran war forces US to rethink Middle East military strategy: FT

Tehran - BORNA - According to the newspaper, the Pentagon is now considering a more agile and dispersed force structure, including deploying troops across smaller facilities and rapidly moving combat aircraft between temporary runways rather than relying heavily on large, highly visible bases.

The war has also imposed substantial financial costs on Washington. The American Enterprise Institute estimates that repairing 11 US bases in seven Middle Eastern countries could cost around $5 billion — expenditure that the Pentagon had not included in its initial estimates for the war.

Nate Swanson, a former Iran director at the US National Security Council, said rebuilding some of the damaged facilities may no longer make strategic sense.

“Rebuilding some of these facilities isn’t necessarily useful,” Swanson said. “The need to fund reconstruction of facilities that are no longer required could accelerate existing trends.”

Another question facing the Pentagon, according to the report, is whether forces should be moved beyond the effective reach of Iranian weapons.

Over the past six months, the United States has relocated some forces to the occupied Palestinian territories, Jordan and even bases in Europe in an effort to move them beyond the range of Iran’s shorter-range missiles. Iran, in turn, is expected to invest further in medium-range missiles capable of reaching such locations.

Dana Stroul, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, said Washington could adopt “something more agile and flexible.”

“The vulnerable design of the Gulf bases is a legacy that does not fit modern conflict,” Stroul said. “Those who were trying to get us out of those bases now feel vindicated.”

She said Washington would have to strike a delicate balance between its operational requirements and its commitments to regional partners, including assessing what assets and troop presence are needed to support the security of Persian Gulf states.

“Avoiding the perception that we are abandoning them will be important,” Stroul said.

Iranian strikes exposed vulnerabilities of US bases

One of the principal concerns surrounding US bases in the Persian Gulf is the amount of military equipment positioned above ground and exposed to attack, the Financial Times said.

During the war, Iran successfully struck aircraft shelters, refueling and resupply infrastructure, radar systems, and command-and-control nodes, according to the report.

Those attacks have forced the US Fifth Fleet to use Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean as an alternative logistics hub for its damaged headquarters in Bahrain.

The newspaper said the war had provided Washington with a major lesson about the vulnerabilities of its regional military posture.

After 22 years, the United States is now considering a significant reduction in its military presence in the Middle East and countries neighboring Iran, with any restructuring likely to affect troop numbers across the Persian Gulf.

The number of US forces normally deployed in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait — around 35,000 in total — is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2003, before the US invasion of Iraq, according to the report.

Washington is also withdrawing forces from Syria and reducing its military presence in Iraq.

US faces dilemma over regional drawdown

The Financial Times said Washington’s biggest challenge is determining how to reduce its military footprint without encouraging Iran or alarming Arab allies concerned about their own security.

The decades-old “oil-for-security” bargain between Washington and its regional partners has already evolved, with several US allies increasingly seeking to diversify their security relationships beyond the United States.

A further American drawdown, the newspaper said, risks creating the impression that Washington is “fleeing” the region.

Gregory Brew, a historian and analyst at Eurasia Group, said the developments point to the collapse of a doctrine that has shaped US strategy in the Persian Gulf for more than four decades.

“It looks like the Carter Doctrine has collapsed,” Brew told the Financial Times. “There is a sense that Washington is back at square one. The Iranian Revolution gave birth to the Carter Doctrine, and the war with Iran brought about its collapse.”

‘Carter Doctrine has collapsed’

The Financial Times noted that the Carter Doctrine, announced by then-US President Jimmy Carter in 1980, declared that Washington would prevent any hostile power from gaining control of the Persian Gulf and would use military force if necessary to defend its interests there.

The newspaper said the doctrine now appears to have effectively broken down, while the White House has yet to articulate a new strategic concept for the Middle East capable of guiding US officials toward a coherent path forward.

The report also drew a historical parallel between President Donald Trump and Carter.

Trump had repeatedly said he did not want to be remembered like Carter, whose presidency was heavily damaged by the US Embassy hostage crisis in Iran.

Yet, the Financial Times argued, the strategic setbacks Washington has suffered in the war with Iran have created an ironic reversal.

Trump, who sought to avoid Carter’s political fate, now risks being remembered as a new version of the former president after a conflict that has forced Washington to reconsider the very regional doctrine created in response to the Iranian Revolution.

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