What Should We Expect Next?
Jalal Khosh-Chehre, the editorial chief of Borna News Agency wrote: Following the fragile ceasefire in the 12-day war, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to speak of “peace and reconciliation” with Tehran. Yet his definition of peace stands in direct contradiction to Iran’s strategic principles. Europe, meanwhile, is attempting to isolate Tehran into accepting the very conditions Trump calls the “terms of peace.” Tel Aviv, for its part, shows no restraint in displaying its appetite for further adventurism.
At the same time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ahead of its November Board of Governors meeting, has shown no indication of any shift in its approach toward Tehran. And on September 28, 2025 — just weeks before the JCPOA’s expiration — the European E3 carried out its threat to trigger the snapback mechanism. Its full implementation, however, depends on how Tehran responds within the narrow time window that remains.
Tehran’s Countermoves
In the weeks between the last IAEA meeting and the next, Iran has moved to strengthen its defensive and offensive systems, halt negotiations with Washington and the European E3, and intensify diplomatic engagement with members of the Non-Aligned Movement and select African and Asian countries. It has also consolidated its alignment with Russia and China, denouncing the snapback as “an illegal and politically motivated act.” Tehran is reportedly preparing for a joint declaration with Moscow and Beijing to formally mark the “sunset of the JCPOA” on September 28, 2025.
The question now is whether Tehran’s responses to Western pressure will merely maintain this frozen status quo — or eventually thaw it. The answer may come sooner rather than later. The West appears intent on forcing Tehran into a final decision under limited time. Iran, while aware of the economic and diplomatic costs of the current stalemate, continues to call for “fresh, constructive ideas” from Western capitals, yet has not itself presented a clear proposal to rebalance the tense situation.
Should Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing jointly declare the JCPOA’s termination, it would certainly be viewed by the West as a confrontational act. Whether the two permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia and China) can meaningfully counter Western resolve in pressuring Tehran remains uncertain. Much will depend on the legal mechanisms tied to the 2015 nuclear agreement and the evolving dynamics between Eastern and Western power blocs.
Still, Iran must adopt a realist outlook toward unfolding events. In such a volatile context, relying on abstract optimism or political illusions could prove costly if the worst-case scenarios are not factored into national calculations.
Lessons from the Post-War Propaganda
Western — and particularly Israeli — media outlets have emphasized several takeaways from the 12-day conflict: The U.S. and Israel failed to achieve total destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities or enriched uranium stockpiles. Israel was unsuccessful in eliminating Iranian nuclear scientists and key defense figures. Despite facing an asymmetrical war, Tehran demonstrated its capacity to conceal and protect strategic assets. Even with intensified sanctions, there has been no meaningful shift in Iran’s core positions.
Western propaganda seeks to redefine the present calm not as peace, but as a temporary freeze before renewed escalation. For that reason, Tehran must remain acutely alert — neither deceived by illusions of calm nor paralyzed by threats.
Awareness and vigilance are not the same. To possess intelligence is one thing; to exercise it continuously in the face of deception is another.
And thus, the question remains — perhaps more relevant than ever:
What should we expect next?
About the Author: Jalal Khoshchehreh is a veteran Iranian journalist and political analyst. As the Editor-in-Chief of Borna News Agency, he writes extensively on regional security, Iranian diplomacy, and Western power dynamics. Known for his analytical and realist perspective, Khoshchehreh’s commentaries explore the intersection of media, politics, and national strategy in contemporary Iran.
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