Global Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Supply Concerns

Tehran - BORNA - Brent crude futures for June delivery rose by $6.81, or 5.8%, reaching $124.84 per barrel, following a 6.1% increase in the previous session. The June contract, which has climbed for nine consecutive days, is set to expire on Thursday. The more active July contract also saw a significant uptick, rising $3.34, or 3%, to $113.78, after a 5.8% jump on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for June delivery increased by $2.76, or 2.6%, to $109.64 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark had already soared by 7% on Wednesday and has seen gains in eight of the last nine trading days.

Both benchmarks are currently on track for their fourth consecutive monthly increase. Since the beginning of 2026, Brent crude prices have more than doubled, reaching their highest levels since March 2022 on Thursday. U.S. crude prices have likewise increased by more than 90% in the same period.

Informed sources told Reuters on Wednesday that OPEC+—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies—is likely to agree to a modest production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) this coming Sunday.

This meeting follows the recent announcement of the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) withdrawal from OPEC. While the UAE’s exit is expected to weaken the group's ability to control global prices, analysts suggest the move allows the country to increase production once exports resume. However, experts note that with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other war-related production disruptions, this is unlikely to impact the market significantly this year.

According to a Reuters report, analysts at ING predict that approximately 1.6 million barrels per day of demand will be lost. This decline is attributed to consumers and end-users halting the use of petroleum products due to the record-high price levels.

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