China's oil imports rebound from decade-low levels

Tehran - BORNA - The sharp rebound follows increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz after an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, as well as higher purchases of Russian oil by Chinese refiners. The July figure represents a notable recovery from the 6.2 million barrels per day recorded in June, which was the lowest level since November 2015.

Last month, China's crude imports plunged more than 40 percent compared to June 2025, reflecting a shift from stockpiling to drawing down reserves rather than a collapse in underlying demand. Chinese refiners and policymakers tapped into these stockpiles to limit purchases during the supply shock caused by the US-Israeli aggression against Iran.

Oil flows from the Persian Gulf ramped up following the peace agreement, with shipments from Saudi Arabia more than doubling in July while flows from the United Arab Emirates surged more than tenfold, according to Kpler data. Russian inflows have also climbed by about 10 percent. Much of the increase reflects cargoes that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf finally arriving in China, according to Kpler's senior crude analyst.

Analysts note that China's drawdown of inventories, estimated at roughly 41 million barrels in June alone, helped cushion one of the worst supply shocks in modern history. Lower Middle Eastern prices for July and August cargoes have also lured Chinese refiners back to the market.

The future trajectory of China's imports will depend heavily on shipping conditions in the coming weeks and the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, according to analysts. Kpler forecasts that stockpiling could resume as early as the fourth quarter of this year. The country held total oil stocks of roughly 1.9 billion barrels by the end of 2025, equivalent to about 117 days of import coverage and 70 percent higher than comparable US reserves, which could allow China to maintain imports near current levels for several more months.

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