Stephen Walt: Iran has permanently altered Washington’s military equations

Tehran - BORNA - Speaking during a joint strategic panel hosted by Ryan Grim, an investigative journalist for the American outlet Drop Site News, alongside veteran journalist Chris Hedges, the Harvard University professor analyzed the strategic fallout of the military campaign initiated by the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran. Walt emphasized that the confrontation has permanently shattered the illusion of the "magical American war machine."

The end of hegemony: US bases targeted amid Iranian deterrence

Opening the panel, host Ryan Grim addressed Walt’s long-standing geopolitical thesis advocating for a major reduction of the US military footprint in the Middle East. "It seems exactly what you have advocated for years is now transpiring," Grim noted. "However, no one predicted this withdrawal would happen not on Washington’s terms, but forced by the military leverage of Iran. Our bases across the region are practically going up in smoke, and the direction of travel is undeniable."

This assessment aligns with extensive investigative coverage and leaked data published by major Western publications. The Washington Post recently published detailed satellite mapping illustrating the immense scale of structural damage inflicted upon key US military installations across the Arabian Peninsula and near Iran's borders. The targeted facilities include the Naval Support Activity Bahrain, Isa Air Base, Riffa Air Base, Erbil International Airport, Harir Air Base, Ali Al Salem Air Base, Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, Shuaiba Port, Al Udeid Air Base, Prince Sultan Air Base, and Al Dhafra Air Base.

Simultaneously, The New York Times quoted Pentagon officials admitting that the high precision and overwhelming volume of Iran’s ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones successfully saturated and operationally paralyzed American Patriot missile defense systems. The reports confirmed that Iranian strikes effectively knocked out critical fuel infrastructure, runways, and sensitive phased-array radar systems at these strategic hubs. Satellite imagery verified by The Washington Post showcased extensive devastation at major logistics hubs such as Kuwait's Camp Arifjan, revealing direct hits on reinforced aircraft hangars, warehouses, and supply lines. The Wall Street Journal has placed initial damage estimates well into billions of dollars, leaving the US military supply chain in the Persian Gulf in a severe bottleneck.

Responding to these developments, Professor Walt validated the geopolitical stalemate. "We should not assume the US military presence completely vanishes overnight—and let's hope a withdrawal happens because we want the war to end—but there is no guarantee," Walt stated. "There is a distinct danger that the administration doubles down on this gamble, leading to an even greater debacle. But the reality remains that the US military has run into Iranian leverage, is operating from a position of weakness, and ultimately, our retrenchment will lead to a more stable world."

Walt added that the United States has not acted as a stabilizing force in the Middle East for the past 40 years. "We destabilized the region by invading Iraq in 2003 and fueled the rise of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS through various military interventions," he explained. "The correct path forward is abandoning 'special relationships' with one or two specific countries, which inevitably cuts off communication with everyone else. We must maintain normal relations with all actors, supporting them when they align with our interests and distancing ourselves when they do not."

The 90-minute briefing: How Netanyahu manipulated Trump

Addressing the domestic political catalyst behind the conflict, Ryan Grim pointed to reports showing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conducted a 90-minute briefing in the White House Situation Room, convincing Donald Trump to launch a preemptive strike under the assumption that Iran would inevitably retaliate.

"Donald Trump is an adult and must accept full responsibility for his decisions," Walt responded. "But I am certain that without that specific briefing and intense Israeli pressure, he would have never launched this attack. There was no imminent threat from Iran, and Tehran was not on the verge of building a nuclear weapon—especially since Washington had claimed just last summer to have destroyed their nuclear capabilities."

Walt attributed Trump's calculations to two additional psychological factors. First, Trump was highly influenced by the successful abduction of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, falsely believing the US military possessed "magical capabilities" that could execute any objective seamlessly. This led to a flawed consensus that the Iranian government was a "house of cards" ready to collapse under a single heavy blow; instead, the intervention produced a highly cohesive and unified state apparatus. Second, Walt noted that Trump sought to secure a historic legacy, believing that resolving Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran would permanently carve his name onto Mount Rushmore. "If you subtract that 90-minute meeting with Netanyahu, this war would have never occurred," Walt asserted.

Domestic political fallout and the path to exit

Analyzing American public opinion, Walt highlighted Trump's severe deviation from his non-interventionist rhetoric. After campaigning as an anti-war candidate opposed to "forever wars," Trump's decision to launch an unprovoked conflict without public consensus has left his core base feeling betrayed. Recent polls conducted by Reuters and Ipsos indicate that Trump's approval ratings have plummeted, rendering him one of the most unpopular presidents in modern US history—a decline analysts attribute to his abandonment of non-interventionist populist values and the failure of the military campaign. Furthermore, The Washington Post reported that despite White House claims, Iran has successfully retained over 70 percent of its total military capacity, establishing itself as an undeniable power matrix in West Asia.

When asked about a recent article by prominent neoconservative strategist Robert Kagan, who formally conceded US defeat against Iran, Walt welcomed the intellectual shift. "I’d like to think these foreign policy institutions are finally recalculating," Walt said. "A segment of traditional interventionists now realize that these reckless approaches actively threaten the vital features of American democracy itself. I am glad to see someone as intelligent as Bob Kagan recognizing how counterproductive his previous positions were, and I welcome his alignment with a realist perspective."

Concluding his remarks on how Washington can extract itself from the current geopolitical quagmire, the author of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy emphasized that the US must separate its national interests from those of Tel Aviv.

"The continuation of this war benefits absolutely no one in America, Europe, or Asia," Walt concluded. "The only viable exit route is for Washington to explicitly inform the Israelis that the United States will no longer support or subsidize their military campaign against Iran, and that the fighting must terminate immediately—regardless of how much anger that decision triggers in Tel Aviv."

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