MEE: U.S., Israel Face Strategic Defeat in 'Greater Battle' Against Iran
Tehran - BORNA - In an analysis for Middle East Eye, Firas Abu Hilal explores the complex question of "Who won the war on Iran?", arguing that the answer is far more nuanced than military strikes suggest.
The author points to the concept of "asymmetric warfare," noting that since World War II, the definitions of victory and defeat have been reshaped by propaganda and subjectivity. This ambiguity often allows all parties involved to claim victory regardless of the tactical outcome.
Citing the 1968 Vietnam War as a classic example, Abu Hilal writes that a technical U.S. military victory transformed into a political defeat by fueling the anti-war movement. Similarly, the wars in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001) are highlighted as "temporary victories" that ultimately evolved into total strategic failures for the United States.
The report emphasizes that the core political objectives of the war against Iran—including regime change, provoking a popular revolt, encouraging military defection, and the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure—have all failed. Not only has the Iranian government maintained stability through its leadership transition, but it has also asserted control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
According to the analysis, Iran successfully shifted the focus of the conflict toward securing "freedom of navigation" in the Strait of Hormuz. By leveraging its ability to control this vital maritime chokepoint, which imposed immense economic pressure globally, Iran placed itself in a significantly stronger bargaining position.
Iran entered the Islamabad negotiations with a 10-point plan seeking to formalize its leverage over the Strait, continue its nuclear program, and secure a ceasefire in Lebanon. While the Trump administration initially appeared receptive, its subsequent withdrawal led to the collapse of the talks.
The author contends that the U.S. and Israel are losing another critical front: the battle for global legitimacy. Even close allies, including European nations, refused to participate in the conflict, viewing it as illegal under international law.
Furthermore, strikes on civilian targets—such as the Minab girls' school, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of children—combined with President Trump’s threats to "destroy Iranian civilization," have severely tarnished the international image of both the U.S. and Israel.
In conclusion, the analysis suggests that given the nature of modern warfare, the U.S. and Israel are losing the "greater political battle." Their strategic goals remain unfulfilled while their global credibility has been significantly damaged. Conversely, Iran has succeeded in institutionalizing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, remaining a pivotal player in regional equations.
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